I believe that the future is (clearly) electric. But that doesn’t mean I think petrol and diesel will vanish in the next 10 years.

In reality, pure petrol and diesel cars will no longer be on sale by 2030 – but it’s another five years before all new cars and vans will have to be zero emission. That means there’s another 13 years from now that hybrids will be the predominant option alongside battery electric vehicles (BEVs).

And keep in mind that the average car on the UK roads is at least nine years old – depending on where you get your figures. And that’s average.

Hybrids will still be popular well into 2040

By my reckoning, therefore, hybrids will still be popular well into 2040 and will probably still be a significant proportion of the vehicles on the roads by 2050. So petrol and diesel aren’t going anywhere for a while.

Although according to the government, they are.

The government has something called a Zero Emissions Mandate, which calls for 22% of new car sales to be zero emission – not hybrid, zero emission – by 2024. That’s just two years away! And the same mandate calls for 80% of new vehicles to be zero emission by 2030.

That’s a huge step from where we are now, but the market is moving incredibly quickly. A decade ago, EVs had an average range of 74 miles. This year, a consumer looking for an EV has a choice of more than 140 vehicles, and with an average range of more than 260 miles.

Range anxiety is therefore fading as more and more chargers appear on major routes. BP, for example, now has more than 8,000 Pulse charge points offering up to 150kW charging – that’s super-rapid.

Charge anxiety is replacing range anxiety

And that is what is now replacing range anxiety: charge anxiety. Wondering if you will find a charger, if it is in full working order and if it is available. If someone has just plugged in, you’re looking at up to half an hour before you can take your turn, then another 20-30 minutes before you can be on your way again.

So how about home chargers? Approximately 40% of UK households have off road parking. For the rest, they park on the street, and street charging isn’t ideal, needing a cable across a pavement, or similar option to charge off your home supply. But even allowing for that, there’s an additional issue: capacity.
Imagine everyone coming home from work and plugging in their cars to their domestic supplies at 6pm. The mains running down the street simply can’t cope with that level of charge demand and it’ll reduce the amount of available power to everyone, so they’ll wake up to go to work the next day and find that their car isn’t as charged as they expected.

More investment is needed

Investment is coming, but even more is needed. Charging infrastructure is one thing – public charge points, chargers in lamp posts – whatever. But investment is also needed in domestic energy supplies to be able to cope with a massive increase in demand.

The future may well be electric, but without serious and rapid investment, it might not be as bright or as fully charged as we would like.