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Remain or leave?

All Areas > Legal & Finance > Money Matters

Author: Roger Downes, Posted: Tuesday, 24th May 2016, 08:00

These are the questions that have been on everyone’s lips for months and will be on the ballot paper in just a few weeks’ time. I wouldn’t be as presumptuous as to suggest how you should vote or as brave as to predict the result, but I do know that it is probably the most important vote of a generation (with no apology to the Scots).

There are numerous factors in play that will affect how you vote – sovereignty, immigration and pure emotion among them – but it is almost certainly trade and finance that will dictate where we finally opt to put our cross. So ‘Money Matters’ has been exploring the potential impact of both options.

There is insufficient data on which to base an informed decision

The most glaring conclusion I can draw is that none of us know and that there is insufficient data on which to base an informed decision.

Those favouring Brexit (couldn’t we have found a better word?!) will point to the billions of pounds that compliance with EU regulations costs British businesses every year and will suggest that we get little back in return. They point to the European Economic Area arrangements that the likes of Norway and Iceland have for trading with EU members without needing to join the club. But don’t be fooled, Norway and the other EEA members are required to accept most of the EU’s relevant rules, including business regulation and free movement of people.

Striking trade deals with EU countries and those further afield will definitely be a major aspect of leaving. I’ve heard figures between 30 and 60 separate deals being required. Depending on your point of view, 60 can be a small number or 30 a large one. But it is probably the single most important thing that our politicians would have to negotiate if the leave lobby wins the day.

Both sides are glad we didn’t adopt the euro

Both sides are united on at least one matter. They are glad that we didn’t adopt the Euro. God bless £ sterling; long may it be with us. Its value may fall significantly in the short term if we Brexit, but would that make our exports much more competitive and encourage more overseas companies to buy our goods? Logically it should and I know a number of people who consider that to be highly likely.

That said, only around 10% of EU exports are to the UK, whereas half of our exports end up in EU countries. Would that make us vulnerable in our negotiations with our former partners?

Who knows? The only clear conclusion is that you won’t have enough reliable data on which to make a financial judgement, so, unless you are going to spin a coin, maybe it’s best to vote with your emotions, whichever way they lean.

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